What this page does and does not do: it does not say whether the area around Kikuyo, Kumamoto is or isn't a "ghost town", and it does not forecast prices or rents. It puts what the Taiwanese reports said, where they came from, and what Japanese public data shows side by side. Every figure has a source, a date and a label: Official = government or company document, Press = press report only, Private data = private-sector data.
- The "Kumamoto ghost town" stories in Taiwanese media in mid-September 2026 trace back to one Japanese Shukan Gendai article (17 September 2026) based on interviews. It gives no vacancy statistics.[1]
- "¥150,000 a month for a 3LDK", "thousands of units" and "wealthy Taiwanese buying houses in cash" all come only from that article's anonymous interviews.
- Other Japanese outlets (Kumamoto Nichinichi, Nishinippon, KAB) also report visible vacancies, but there is no public rental vacancy index to check them against. The official 2023 vacancy rate in Kikuyo (6.7%) was the lowest in the prefecture, but it predates the 2024–25 wave of new rentals.
- Sales data: house and land prices in the three towns started rising before JASM was announced and have been broadly flat since about 2022–23.
- Official land prices were still up in 2026, but the rises were roughly half the previous year's. Population is still growing.
1. What the Taiwanese reports said, and where it came from
Between 18 and 22 September 2026 several Taiwanese outlets reported that the area around Kikuyo town was "turning into a ghost town" Press:
| Outlet, date | Main claims | Based on |
|---|---|---|
| Storm Media 18 Sep[4] | Land-price rises narrowed (residential 8.2%→about 3.7%, commercial 17.4%→6.6%); quotes Kumamoto Nichinichi on oversupply, more vacancies and slower house sales | Prefectural land survey, Kumamoto Nichinichi |
| China Times 20 Sep[3] | New rentals "in the thousands", some empty; plant 2 broke ground Oct 2025, target 2029; demand said to have moved to Koshi | Shukan Gendai |
| Storm Media 20 Sep[5], FTNN 20 Sep[8], Yahoo TW / Taibao 20 Sep[9] | Retellings of the same Shukan Gendai article | Shukan Gendai |
| ETtoday 21 Sep[2] | 3LDK about ¥150,000/month; some wealthy Taiwanese buy houses outright in cash instead of renting; unlit flats at night; a local agent says "the boom is over"; plant 2 "to operate in 2029" | Shukan Gendai |
| Manager Today 21 Sep[6] | Commercial land "19.9%→7.0%" | — (see section 4: does not match official town averages) |
| Mirror Daily 21 Sep[7] | "Not one light on in the whole building at night"; data from an unnamed investment firm: about 20% of Taiwanese enquiries since January 2025 were to live in the home | Shukan Gendai, unnamed firm |
The source, Shukan Gendai / Gendai Business, "TSMCで沸いた熊本県菊陽町、早くも「ゴーストタウン化」の実態" (17 September 2026)[1], is an interview piece: most people quoted are anonymous, and it contains no vacancy or sales statistics. That doesn't make it wrong, but its claims can't be checked against public data.
2. Rentals: the "oversupply" side
Rents
3LDK monthly rent: the reported figure vs listing sites
- 3LDK at ¥150,000 a month: only in Shukan Gendai's interviews Press[1].
- SUUMO asking-rent averages for Kikuchi district (Kikuyo + Ozu), 10 July 2026: 1LDK ¥74k, 2LDK ¥91k, 3LDK ¥126k, 4LDK ¥197k Private data[11].
- homemate, Kikuyo (undated): 1LDK ¥64.4k, 2LDK ¥75.4k, 3LDK ¥94.4k Private data[12].
- LIFULL HOME'S (25 October 2023): rents for new-build rentals in the three towns rose about 1.7× from 2021Q4 to 2023Q3 (¥1,108 → ¥1,680 per ㎡), while listings fell by about 70% (517 in Oct 2021 → 161 in Aug 2023) — a shortage at the time Private data[13].
Listing-site figures are asking rents, not signed rents, and they say nothing about vacancy. ¥150,000 may be the rent of a particular new building, or not; there is no way to tell.
Reports of visible vacancies
- Kumamoto Nichinichi Shimbun (16 Sep 2026, land-survey story): "oversupply, vacancies are noticeable; house plots are selling slowly too" Press[14].
- Nishinippon Shimbun (16 Sep 2026): a real-estate appraiser says apartment vacancies are noticeable in the three towns, supply is saturated and demand has paused Press[15].
- KAB (Kumamoto Asahi Broadcasting): an agent in Ozu says "quite a few new buildings are half empty" (date unknown) Press[16]. Rakumachi (20 Aug 2025) reported similarly[17].
- Kumamoto Nichinichi (14 Jan 2026): the president of Meiwa Real Estate says rental construction around TSMC is oversupplied and starts have calmed down Press[19].
Housing starts
New rental housing starts, whole of Kumamoto Prefecture, 2019–2023
- New rental housing starts, whole prefecture: 4,922 units in 2021 → 6,918 in 2023 Official[20]. We found no town-level figures.
- April–October 2025: 5,859 housing starts in Kumamoto Prefecture, −32.9% year on year, the steepest fall in Kyushu (Japan Housing Finance Agency figures reported by Kumamoto Nichinichi on 12 Dec 2025, described as a pull-back after a rush) Press[18].
Official vacancy rate (2023)
| Area | Vacancy rate |
|---|---|
| Kumamoto Prefecture | 14.9% |
| Kumamoto City | 13.2% |
| Ozu | 8.0% |
| Koshi | 7.6% |
| Kikuyo (20,460 dwellings, 1,370 vacant) | 6.7% (lowest in the prefecture) |
OfficialHousing and Land Survey 2023, as of 1 October 2023[21]. Kikuyo's owner-occupation rate (46.2%) is also the lowest in the prefecture, i.e. many renters. Caveat: this was taken before the 2024–25 wave of new rentals, and the survey runs every five years (next: 2028). For current rental vacancy there is no public index; we found no private vacancy index covering Kikuyo either.
3. Sales: MLIT transaction data
OfficialTwo datasets from MLIT's Real Estate Information Library[22]: the transaction-price survey (buyer questionnaire, from 2015) and closed contract prices (REINS, from 2021). The same sale can appear in both, so they are never pooled. The three towns (Kikuyo, Ozu, Koshi) have almost no resale condo sales, so this section covers houses and land.
Houses (land + building): median sale price, 2015–2025
Residential-size land (100–500㎡): median price per ㎡, 2015–2025
- The rise started before JASM: the three-town median house price (survey) was ¥21.0m–¥24.0m in 2015–17 and ¥30.0m in 2020; residential land went from ¥34,167/㎡ (2015) to ¥44,000/㎡ (2020). JASM was announced in November 2021. This data cannot say whether JASM caused any of the rise.
- Broadly flat since 2022–23: land ¥52,174/㎡ in 2022 → ¥47,619/㎡ in 2025; the house median (survey) peaked in 2023 at ¥35.5m, then ¥33.0m (2024) and ¥32.5m (2025).
- Closed house sales (REINS) are growing in number: 11 in 2021 → 25 in 2023 → 51 in 2025, median ¥28.0m (2023) and ¥28.0m (2025), per ㎡ of land ¥118,367/㎡ → ¥147,619/㎡. 18 of the 2025 sales were new or under a year old (2 in 2024), which pushes the median up by itself.
- Kikuyo's 2025 land median fell sharply (¥79,029/㎡ → ¥34,702/㎡) because a cluster of ¥16,000–22,000/㎡ plots sold in Magarite, Haramizu and Babakusu (they look like a subdivision or outlying lots). It does not mean Kikuyo land values halved; there are only about 30 sales a year.
- Sales of land over 1,000㎡ in the three towns jumped to 83 in 2024 (usually 25–40; 50 in 2025). The data doesn't say what for (factories, development, etc.).
Kikuyo + Ozu + Koshi: median house price by quarter (2021Q1–2026Q1)
Table: median house price and residential land price per ㎡ by town (2015–2025, buyer survey)
| Area · type | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kikuyo house | ¥23.5m | ¥27.0m | ¥28.0m | ¥27.5m | ¥34.0m | ¥33.0m | ¥29.5m | ¥36.0m | ¥39.0m | ¥41.0m | ¥37.0m |
| Ozu house | ¥23.5m | ¥25.0m | ¥18.0m | ¥22.5m | ¥22.0m | ¥23.0m | ¥22.0m | ¥23.0m | ¥31.5m | ¥28.5m | ¥33.0m |
| Koshi house | ¥25.0m | ¥20.0m | ¥18.0m | ¥23.5m | ¥26.0m | ¥31.5m | ¥29.0m | ¥28.0m | ¥30.5m | ¥30.0m | ¥28.0m |
| Three towns house | ¥24.0m | ¥21.0m | ¥22.0m | ¥25.0m | ¥27.0m | ¥30.0m | ¥28.0m | ¥30.0m | ¥35.5m | ¥33.0m | ¥32.5m |
| Kikuyo land /㎡ | ¥35,942 | ¥35,000 | ¥42,308 | ¥52,190 | ¥52,381 | ¥61,905 | ¥54,545 | ¥65,000 | ¥60,714 | ¥79,029 | ¥34,702 |
| Ozu land /㎡ | ¥26,970 | ¥20,000 | ¥21,562 | ¥26,957 | ¥25,458 | ¥24,091 | ¥22,039 | ¥24,783 | ¥46,977 | ¥25,121 | ¥33,333 |
| Koshi land /㎡ | ¥36,087 | ¥37,143 | ¥42,174 | ¥33,417 | ¥38,436 | ¥43,478 | ¥50,000 | ¥52,174 | ¥50,000 | ¥45,833 | ¥50,000 |
| Three towns land /㎡ | ¥34,167 | ¥32,742 | ¥40,000 | ¥35,833 | ¥40,000 | ¥44,000 | ¥44,619 | ¥52,174 | ¥50,000 | ¥48,500 | ¥47,619 |
What kind of houses sell
Reports say Taiwanese buyers pay cash for houses, but the sales data has no buyer nationality and no payment method. It can only show which houses sold, and for how much:
House sales by price band, three towns, 2021–2025 (559 sales)
- Houses in residential use, three towns, 2021–2025: 559 survey sales, median ¥28.0m; 140 closed sales, median ¥26.0m.
- By town (survey): Kikuyo ¥34.0m (159 sales), Koshi ¥28.0m (273), Ozu ¥22.0m (127).
- New or under a year old: 236 of the survey sales (42%). By year (includes small apartment buildings):
Table: share of new houses (three towns, buyer survey)
| Year | House sales (survey) | New or ≤1 year old | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 146 | 65 | 45% |
| 2016 | 73 | 24 | 33% |
| 2017 | 118 | 36 | 31% |
| 2018 | 130 | 56 | 43% |
| 2019 | 124 | 55 | 44% |
| 2020 | 151 | 68 | 45% |
| 2021 | 170 | 82 | 48% |
| 2022 | 150 | 53 | 35% |
| 2023 | 152 | 40 | 26% |
| 2024 | 148 | 42 | 28% |
| 2025 | 146 | 39 | 27% |
More detail by area: Kumamoto property prices (Kikuyo, Ozu, Koshi, Kumamoto City).
4. Land prices: official figures vs the reported ones
Prefectural land price survey (residential): yearly change, 2024 → 2025 → 2026
| Town | Use | Survey 2024 | Survey 2025 | Survey 2026 (1 Jul) | Koji 2025 | Koji 2026 (1 Jan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kikuyo | Residential | +11.5% | +8.2% | +3.6% | +12.4% | +6.3% |
| Kikuyo | Commercial | +25.1% | +17.4% | +6.6% | +30.9% | +12.0% |
| Kikuyo | Industrial | +25.0% | +12.0% | +7.1% | — | — |
| Ozu | Residential | +10.8% | +6.8% | +4.0% | +11.3% | +5.6% |
| Ozu | Commercial | +31.5% | +13.7% | +5.1% | +24.0% | +8.9% |
| Ozu | Industrial | +33.3% | +29.7% | +22.9% | +33.3% | +26.0% |
| Koshi | Residential | +7.6% | +4.2% | +3.4% | +9.9% | +6.3% |
| Koshi | Commercial | +6.0% | +2.9% | +2.5% | +4.2% | +1.9% |
| Koshi | Industrial | +29.5% | +26.3% | +20.8% | — | — |
Official"Survey" = Kumamoto Prefecture land price survey (kijun chika, as of 1 July; 2026 results published 16 Sep 2026)[23]; "Koji" = official land price publication (as of 1 January)[24]. Figures are town averages of the yearly change at continuing points, and there are few points (Kikuyo commercial: 1 koji point, 3 survey points), so one point can move the average a lot. The prefecture's own wording: the rises "narrowed again in the 2026 survey, following 2025". Prefecture-wide 2026 survey: +1.3% all uses, +0.8% residential.
Do the reported numbers match?
- Storm Media: "residential 8.2%→about 3.7%, commercial 17.4%→6.6%"[4]: these are Kikuyo's land-survey figures, 2025→2026. Commercial matches exactly; the official 2026 residential figure is 3.6% (a rounding-size difference).
- Manager Today: "commercial 19.9%→7.0%"[6]: matches neither official town average (survey 17.4→6.6, koji 30.9→12.0). In our data exactly one survey point (菊陽5-2, 菊池郡菊陽町大字津久礼字平ノ上11番8, commercial) moved +19.9% in 2025 and +7.0% in 2026, so the figure may be a single point's change rather than a town average.
- Storm Media's "Kikuchi city industrial land +26.0%, No. 1 in Japan" matches the prefecture's data (Ozu and Koshi industrial land were 4th and 5th nationally).
Land prices are appraisals of bare land, not sale prices, and exclude buildings.
5. Population, households, foreign residents
| Town | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2026 yearly change | Households 2020→2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kikuyo | 43,337 | 43,709 | 44,224 | 44,203 | 44,443 | 44,570 | 44,954 | +0.9% | 17,794 → 20,199 |
| Ozu | 35,187 | 35,403 | 35,815 | 35,696 | 35,859 | 36,364 | 36,716 | +1.0% | 14,165 → 16,856 |
| Koshi | 61,772 | 62,214 | 62,835 | 63,325 | 63,852 | 64,111 | 64,537 | +0.7% | 22,283 → 24,713 |
- OfficialKumamoto Prefecture population estimates (1 August each year; 2020 = census)[27]. 2026 vs 2025: Kikuyo +384 (+0.9%), Ozu +352 (+1.0%), Koshi +426 (+0.7%) — all among the prefecture's five biggest gainers, while the prefecture as a whole changed by -12,776.
- Households grew faster than population (smaller households, workers moving without family): Kikuyo +2,405 households from 2020 to 2026.
- OfficialForeign residents in Kikuyo (resident register, end of August): 2023 703, 2024 1,050, 2025 1,161, 2026 1,263[28]. The town does not publish nationality breakdowns.
- PressLiberty Times (1 Mar 2026): about 1,000 foreign residents in Kikuyo, over 500 of them Taiwanese; only 2–3% of TSMC staff live in Kikuyo[10]. The figure of 2,108 Taiwanese in Kumamoto Prefecture (end of June 2025) is quoted by Storm Media; we could not find the original.
6. JASM (TSMC Kumamoto) timeline
| Date | Fact | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2021 | JASM announced | Official |
| 2024-02-06 | TSMC announces plant 2: construction to start by end-2024, operation by end-2027 (6/7–40nm); total JASM investment over US$20bn, over 100k wafers/month, over 3,400 jobs[29] | Official |
| 2024-02-24 | Plant 1 opening ceremony[30] | Official |
| Dec 2024 | Plant 1 volume production begins[31] | Press |
| Apr 2025 | About 2,400 people at the Kumamoto plant[38] | Press |
| Oct 2025 | Plant 2 construction starts (TSMC earnings call, 16 Oct 2025)[32]; siting agreement with Kikuyo on 24 Oct[33] | OfficialPress |
| 2026-04-16 | TSMC Q1 2026 earnings call: plant 2 in Japan will use 3nm, volume production scheduled in 2028[34] | Official |
| Feb–Apr 2026 | 15k wafers/month; Taiwan's authorities approved on 1 Apr 2026[35]; investment in Japan about ¥2.6 trillion[36] | Press |
| Jan–Mar 2026 | JASM's first quarterly profit (NT$951m)[37] | Press |
The Taiwanese reports say plant 2 will "operate in 2029"; TSMC's earnings call of 16 April 2026 said volume production is scheduled in 2028. The plan has already changed (end-2027 → 2028; 6/7nm → 3nm) and could change again.
Private dataRegional Economic Research Institute (June 2026)[39]: JASM hired 125 people in 2023, 256 in 2024, 527 in 2025 and 105 in April 2026. Kumamoto signed 71 semiconductor-related siting agreements from autumn 2021 to March 2026 (excluding JASM: ¥508.6bn investment, 2,360 jobs); 7 in FY2025 vs 15 in FY2024.
7. What this means for a buyer: questions to ask
We don't give advice or forecasts. These are questions to put to a broker or property manager, or to check yourself, if you look at property here:
- Live in it or rent it out? If renting: who is the tenant (JASM or supplier staff, local families)? What are signed rents for the same layout nearby, and how long do vacant units take to let? Ask for actual letting records, not asking rents.
- How much more is being built? How many rental buildings and housing plots are under construction or planned nearby? How full are the buildings completed in 2024–25?
- Can you sell it later? There are almost no resale condo sales in the three towns, and only dozens of closed house sales a year. How long have similar properties taken to sell?
- How does the price compare with sales data? New and used houses sell at very different prices (see the price bands above). How far is the asking price from MLIT medians, and why?
- What if the timeline moves? The plant plans have changed (plant 2 delayed and switched to 3nm). Do the numbers only work if everything goes to plan?
- Where does a quoted figure come from? When you see "¥150k rent", "thousands of units" or "half empty", ask for the source and the date.
Prices by town: Kumamoto property prices.
FAQ
Is Kikuyo, Kumamoto a ghost town?
We don't give a verdict. Several outlets report visible vacancies, but Japan has no public rental vacancy index; the official 2023 vacancy rate in Kikuyo (6.7%) was the lowest in the prefecture, but it predates the 2024–25 wave of new rentals. Population is still growing, and official land prices rose again in 2026, by less than in 2025.
Is a 3LDK really ¥150,000 a month?
That figure appears only in Shukan Gendai's anonymous interviews (17 Sep 2026). Listing sites show 3LDK asking rents of ¥126,000 (SUUMO, Kikuchi district, Jul 2026) and ¥94,400 (homemate, Kikuyo). These are asking rents, not signed rents.
When will TSMC's second Kumamoto plant start production?
TSMC's earnings call of 16 April 2026 said the second Japan fab will use 3nm, with volume production scheduled in 2028. The Taiwanese reports' '2029' differs. The plan has changed before and could change again.
Looking at Kikuyo, Ozu or Koshi? Talk to a licensed broker
We don't describe, recommend or negotiate properties. Tell us the area and budget and we will introduce licensed Japanese brokers who work with overseas buyers. We are not a real estate broker; we introduce you to licensed Japanese brokers. Buyers pay us nothing (brokers may pay us a referral fee).
Sources
- Press 週刊現代／マネー現代「TSMCで沸いた熊本県菊陽町、早くも「ゴーストタウン化」の実態…」 (2026-09-17) gendai.media
- Press ETtoday 新聞雲（張靖榕） (2026-09-21) www.ettoday.net
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- Private data SUUMO 賃貸 家賃相場（熊本県菊池郡＝菊陽町＋大津町） (2026-07-10) suumo.jp
- Private data ホームメイト 家賃相場（菊陽町） (日付なし) www.homemate.co.jp
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- Press 西日本新聞（不動産鑑定士：3市町で共同住宅の空室が目立つ） (2026-09-16) news.yahoo.co.jp
- Press KAB（大津町の業者「新築は半分空いている所がかなり多い」） (日付不明) www.kab.co.jp
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- Press 熊本日日新聞（明和不動産 社長インタビュー） (2026-01-14) kumanichi.com
- Official 熊本県統計年鑑 9-2 新設住宅着工（貸家） (2019–2023) www.pref.kumamoto.jp
- Official 総務省 住宅・土地統計調査2023（熊本県の集計、2023年10月1日時点） (2023-10-01) www.pref.kumamoto.jp
- Official 国土交通省 不動産情報ライブラリ（成約価格・取引価格情報、2015Q1〜2026Q1） (2026-09-29 取得) www.reinfolib.mlit.go.jp
- Official 熊本県 令和8年 地価調査（2026年7月1日時点） (2026-09-16) www.pref.kumamoto.jp
- Official 熊本県 令和8年 地価公示（2026年1月1日時点） (2026-03) www.pref.kumamoto.jp
- Official 国土数値情報 地価公示 L01（2026） (2026-03-18) nlftp.mlit.go.jp
- Official 国土数値情報 都道府県地価調査 L02（2026） (2026-09-15) nlftp.mlit.go.jp
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- Official 菊陽町 住民基本台帳人口（外国人、各年8月末） (2026-08-31) www.town.kikuyo.lg.jp
- Official TSMC press release: JASM second fab (2024-02-06) pr.tsmc.com
- Official TSMC press release: JASM fab 1 opening ceremony (2024-02-24) pr.tsmc.com
- Official TSMC 2025年第3四半期 決算説明会（第2工場の着工） (2025-10-16) (URL not recorded)
- Press KAB 熊本朝日放送（第2工場 菊陽町と立地協定） (2025-10-24) www.kab.co.jp
- Official TSMC 1Q26 Earnings Conference Transcript（"In Japan, we now plan to utilize 3-nanometer technology in our second fab and volume production is scheduled in 2028."） (2026-04-16) investor.tsmc.com
- Press Taipei Times（第2工場の3nm化・台湾当局の承認・月1.5万枚） (2026-04-01) www.taipeitimes.com
- Press Taipei Times（日本での投資 約2.6兆円） (2026-02-06) www.taipeitimes.com
- Press Focus Taiwan（中央社）JASM 2026年1〜3月期 初の黒字 (2026-05-16) focustaiwan.tw
- Press KAB（JASM熊本工場 約2,400人） (2025-04) www.kab.co.jp
- Private data 地方経済総合研究所「熊本の半導体関連投資」 (2026-06) www.reri.or.jp
Checked 2026-09-29. Sales data: Source: MLIT Real Estate Information Library (processed by us) — 出典：国土交通省 不動産情報ライブラリ（https://www.reinfolib.mlit.go.jp/）のデータを加工して作成 (2015Q1–2026Q1; related-party deals, auctions/mediation and adjoining-land purchases excluded; medians are our own, not published or endorsed by MLIT). Land prices: 「国土数値情報（地価公示データ）」（国土交通省）（https://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/ksj/gml/datalist/KsjTmplt-L01-2026.html）を加工して作成 · 「国土数値情報（都道府県地価調査データ）」（国土交通省）（https://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/ksj/gml/datalist/KsjTmplt-L02-2026.html）を加工して作成 (CC BY 4.0); town average changes as published by Kumamoto Prefecture. Press claims are the outlets' own; we only report them with sources. Not a valuation, not investment advice.